Inside mail: Big bets and bookies' verdict

Winx is at $1.10 with TAB Fixed Odds to win her 27th race in succession in the Group 1 George Main Stakes (1600m).
One punter has had $40,000 at $1.14 on Winx but there has also been a string of smaller wagers on the great mare including $15,000 at $1.10, $8,000 at $1.10 and $5,000 at $1.10.
Winx has been an odds-on favourite in her last 21 races. She has not started in the black since her first Cox Plate success in 2015 when she started at odds of $4.60 – which on reflection was a very generous quote given she smashed the field by nearly five lengths in track record time.
Redzel is a hot favourite at $1.80 for the Group 2 $200,000 The Shorts (1100m) after some good bets, including $1,500 at $1.80 twice.
Avilius has looked very impressive winning his two Australian starts for the Godolphin stable and he is the $2.30 favourite for the Group 3 $160,000 Kingston Town Stakes (2000m).
The boom stayer is facing a sizeable rise in grade but this hasn't stopped one confident punter from placing a $20,000 bet at $2.40 on Avilius.
The best winning barriers at Royal Randwick for the last three years.
(In order of most wins)
1000m: 2,6,3,5
1100m: 5,2,6,1
1200m: 6,3,2,1
1400m: 4,2,6,1
1600m: 6,1,8,5
2000m: 5,4,1,10
Race 1 : Sei Stella $4.60-$4.20 with bets of $500 at $4.60, $300 at $4.60 twice.
Race 2 : Santos $3.50-$3.70 with bets of $300 at $3.70, $200 at $3.70, $200 at $3.60, $300 at $3.50, Prophet's Thumb $11-$9-$7.50 with bets of $200 at $9.50, $200 at $9.
Race 3 : Muraaqeb $9-$6.50 including a $1,000 wager at $6.50, Instant De Reve $31-$19 with a $1,000 bet at $21.
Race 4 : Redzel $1.80 unchanged despite bets of $1,500 at $1.80 twice, $500 at $1.80, $250 at $1.80, $200 at $1.80, Ball Of Muscle $12-$9.50
Race 5 : Pierata $3-$3.10-$2.90 with bets of $750 at $3.10, $500 at $2.90, $300 at $2.90 twice, Siege Of Quebec $4.80-$5.50-$5
Race 6 : Winx $1.10 unchanged with bets of $15,000 at $1.10, $8,000 at $1.10, $5,000 at $1.10, $3,650 at $1.10, $2,000 at $1.10 twice, $800 at $1.10, $500 at $1.10, Egg Tart $23-$19, Unforgotten $13-$11
Race 7 : Oohood $7 unchanged with bets of $500 e/w at $7/$2.50, $500 at $7, Santa Catarina $15-$13 with a bet of $1,000/$2,000 e/w at $15/$4.20, Madam Rouge $11-$9.50 with bets of $500 at $10, $1,000 at $9.50.
Race 8 : Big Duke $51-$41, Avilius $2.50-$2.30 including a $20,000 bet at $2.40, Sedanzer $4-$4.20-$4.40, I Am Serious $11-$9.50
Race 9, Marsupial $4.60-$5, Single Bullet $11-$8.50 with bets of $200 at $11, $350 at $9.50, $200 e/w at $9.50/$3, $250 at $8.50
Race 2: 1,3,4
Race 3: 3,4,5,11
Race 4: 1,9
Race 5: 2,5,12
Suggested bet: $20
Bet percentage: 27.77%
Race 6: 6
Race 7: 1,3,5,10
Race 8: 5,8,10,15
Race 9: 2,9,11,12
Suggested bet $20
Bet percentage: 31.25%
Libran (race eight) ran a blinder second-up when a fast-finishing third to Unforgotten in the Chelmsford Stakes. He wasn't suited by the 1600m or the weight-for-age conditions of that race but his run was outstanding. He excels at Randwick and over 2000m. Libran is at generous odds of $6.50.
English (race four) is only weeks away from contesting her second Everest and will meet this year's mission in great shape. The winner of $3.4m and renowned Randwick — and fresh — performer has looked the goods in her two trials, particularly the last one when a closing second to Ef Troop, who will take beating in the Group 2 Danehill Stakes at Flemington on Saturday. Be aware that English did not wear the blinkers in those trials, she will here, which is a clear signal of the stable's intentions.
El Dorado Dreaming (race seven) was a surprise winner of the Group 1 ATC Sires' Produce Stakes over this same course and distance in the autumn. She proved that run was no fluke when a slashing 1.3 lengths third in the Champagne Stakes two weeks later. The daughter of Grahame Begg's Randwick Guineas winner Ilovethiscity has impressed in her trials, one a win over Smart Melody at home, the other a closing and narrow second to Global Glamour at Randwick.
Prophet's Thumb (race two) faces the sizeable task of going from a provincial maiden to a Listed race at carnival time but the daughter of I Am Invincible could not have been more impressive in winning her 1200m maiden at Wyong on August 31 when heavily backed to do so. The David Pfieffer-trained filly has worked well since, including her gallop on the A Grass at Warwick Farm on Tuesday when she was timed in 50.91s for the 800m, last 400m in 22.54s and a slick 11.23s for the final 200m.
Pierata (race five) beat Kementari in the Missile Stakes but missed out on adding the Tramway after that due to a minor ailment. The Greg Hickman-trained galloper can get his Epsom quest back in full swing with a win in the Bill Ritchie. Pierata worked on the course proper at Warwick Farm on Tuesday timed in 1:07.81s for the 1000m, 23.56s for the last 400m and 11.18s for the final 200m.

TAB market update: TEA ROSE STAKES1:18
TAB market update: TEA ROSE STAKES.
September 13th 2018
2 days ago
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Another Dollar (race three), the Queensland Oaks runner-up to Youngstar last season, resumed with a very good fourth to Best Of Days at Randwick earlier this month. The 1400m was too short for this promising mare but she closed her race off strongly. She will be improved by the run and is suited at 1600m. Drawn the inside gate and should get the right run – she just needs a little luck from the turn.
Eawase (race nine) created a big impression late last season winning successive races at Randwick and Doomben, the latter a dominant effort at stakes level. She is resuming here off a very easy trial and has drawn out wide. She will settle back early but she finishes her races off very strongly. Good each-way chance.
R4: THE SHORTS (1100m)
Peter Snowden (trainer) Redzel : 'It is difficult to win all the time but a horse like him, while he's not a Winx, he's very genuine. He tries so hard every time he goes out. He handles it wet and dry, good gates and bad gates, the variables that stop other horses.'
Sally Snow (TAB) : 'The excitement is certainly building, with four Everest contenders lining up here. Whilst English has to be respected, I have to stick with Redzel who looks to have race conditions to suit and will have improved witness wise from its dominant first up win. Suspect it will hold favouritism in the Everest market after this race.'
Glenn Munsie (TAB) : 'This races sets up beautifully for Winx with Religify, It's Somewhat, Le Romain and even Ace High setting up for her to stalk, ease to the centre of the track and blow them away from the 250m. Sit back & watch in amazement. Stablemates to follow her home with Egg Tart next. Watch the old boy Who Shot Thebarman run a race!'
Grant Palmer (bookie) : 'Redzel was terrific first-up and maps to get the same run here. Closest rival in the betting is Invincible Star who I can't see turning the tables on him. English is the best of the rest but has been unplaced the past two years in the same race.'
Blake Johnston (bookie) : 'Considering Invincible Star started favourite first-up over Redzel, I can't jump off with the price discrepancy. She will be hard to beat once again on the speed.'
Terry Kennedy (Sky Sports Radio) : 'No doubt it's a mini-Everest, they'll fly early with Ball Of Muscle and Invincible Star setting the pace. Redzel is the defending Everest champion, the best sprinter in the land, thus the world, should sit behind the early pace and win.'
Verdict : REDZEL
Chris Waller (trainer) Winx : 'She is just a unique horse. Maybe it is because she is not under pressure to win her races. That's why she wins because she is actually doing it with a bit in hand. She is great and I can't see any reason why she can't continue on a bit longer.'
Sally Snow (TAB) : 'It's no longer a question of will Winx win, but how far she'll win by. There doesn't appear to be a challenger in this field and I can't wait to see her dominate down the Randwick straight again.'
Glenn Munsie (TAB) : 'This races sets up beautifully for Winx with Religify, It's Somewhat, Le Romain and even Ace High setting up for her to stalk, ease to the centre of the track and blow them away from the 250m. Sit back and watch in amazement. Stablemates to follow her home with Egg Tart next. Watch the old boy Who Shot Thebarman run a race!'
Grant Palmer (bookie) : 'Looks to be a procession for the great mare Winx. Unforgotten and Le Romain will look to fight out second place and I'm excited to see the return on Who Shot Thebarman who looked great at the trials.'
Blake Johnston (bookie) : 'Winx is once again the one to beat. She is the best I have seen and at wfa there is no reason to go against her. Egg Tart could be the quinella horse.'
Terry Kennedy (Sky Sports Radio) : 'It's hard to imagine, but Winx is better than ever and will make it 27 consecutive wins. To make a quid, go to the Winx out market and take the generous odds on offer Unforgotten.'
Verdict : WINX
James Cummings (trainer) Kementari : 'He's the fittest he's been this campaign and his work on Tuesday morning reflected that. His gallop on the course proper at Flemington was what I wanted to see, he's tightened up nicely. He picked up nicely from the six furlongs and was full of running on the line, suggesting to me that he's coped well with his very impressive Memsie Stakes run. Since the Caulfield race he's been really bright.'
Sally Snow (TAB) : 'Where to look! In one of the most competitive betting races of the day I'm happy to be play bookie this race, where you could make a strong case for over half the field. If I had to tip one on top it would be Kementari after flying home last start in the Memsie two weeks back. It has the class edge on these and Craig Williams should position it perfectly in the run and be too good late.'
Glenn Munsie (TAB) : 'Half the field comes out of the Memsie but we get to Flemington which could see some improve dramatically. One of those is Grunt. Love to see him ridden positively and put himself back there as a serious carnival horse. Stretching to 1600m will help him as well. Like the fact we are getting double figures as well. Humidor is another Flemington lover with a soft draw.'
Grant Palmer (bookie) : 'I'm sticking with Happy Clapper. He was only fair in the Memsie but I think his style is much more suited to Flemington and should take improvement second up. He finished less than a length behind Winx second up last prep and repeat of that would see him win this.'
Blake Johnston (bookie) : 'Kementari looks the one to beat after his near Group 1 win in the Memsie after sitting wide with no cover. He will be better suited at Flemington and looks hard to beat.'
Terry Kennedy (Sky Sports Radio) : 'Happy Clapper was ‘not so happy' at Caulfield but I'm tipping he'll jump out of the ground here, he's a good second-up horse and will love the big surrounds of Flemington.

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