PLAYS OF THE DAY
|DAVO'S TOP PICKS|
|Race 9, No.2 TREKKING|
|Race 5, No.5 INVICTUS PRINCE|
$100 BETTING STRATEGY
Race 4, No.8 After All That $5 place at $18
Race 5, No.5 Invictus Prince $10 win at $9.50
Race 6, No.8 Unforgotten ‘Winx out’ market $20 win at $2.70
Race 7, No.1 El Dorado Dreaming $5 win at $7.50
Race 7, No.13 Sangrita $5 win, $5 place at $17 & $4.20
Race 8, No.11 Patrick Erin $10 to place at $7
Race 9, No.2 Trekking $20 to win at $4.20
$15 all-up ($4.75): Race 4, No1. REdzel to win ($1.90 into Race 8, No.5 Avilius to win ($2.50).
$5 place multi ($19): Race 6, No.8 Unforgotten ($1.55) into Race 8, No.11 Patrick Erin ($7) into Race 9, No.2 Trekking ($1.75).
Track: Soft 5. Rail: True.
R1 (12.10pm): TAB HIGHWAY HCP (1000m)
OVERVIEW: They should fly along here and that could set it up for probably the best horse in the race in Equal Balance. Back to 1000m is not ideal but he should get the race run to suit and he was super first-up on inferior ground when beating home Highway Sixtysix. There is a whole lot of them on that next line — Rhyming Puppet, Lifesaver, Sei Stella, Caccini and Bank Of Erin just to name a few but I’m just happy to have something on Equal Balance in the first.
BETTING STRATEGY: EQUAL BALANCE to win.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Sei Stella $4.60-$4.20 ($500 @ $4.60, $300 @ $4.60 TWICE)
SATURDAY BEST WITH RAY & DUFF
THE DAY WINX HAD TO HIT TOP GEAR
RAWILLER AVOIDS HK CORRUPTION CHARGES
TOP TOPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS
R2 (12.50pm): HERITAGE STAKES (1100m)
OVERVIEW: It’s hard to get away from the market here with Neutrality and Santos. Neutrality went super first-up and he just got tired late when second behind Graff, who is the Golden Rose favourite and benchmark three-year-old in Sydney this spring. He will be fitter for that and the only knock is do you want to take $2.30 when there is a bit of speed inside him and I doubt he gets his own way. Santos gets the blinkers on and he has been trialling well. He should stalk the speed here and he was a dominant winner at this track and distance first-up last prep. He won again after that and then was wide without cover in the Golden Slipper. Charge comes through the B-grade form for mine (Rosebud) but looks third pick, while I wouldn’t be shocked if Ragged Rascal finishes off well here. The 1100m is most likely too sharp for him but he savaged the line in his latest trial. Prophet’s Thumb has potential but can miss the start and this is a big jump up in class.
BETTING STRATEGY: Quinella 3,1.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Prophet’s Thumb $11-$9-$7.50 ($200 @ $9.50, $200 @ $9)
R3 (1.25pm): SHOOT OUT MILE (1600m)
OVERVIEW: Several form lines to consider here and it’s not a race I’m overly confident on. Another Dollar was good first-up, All Too Soon was wide last start (but comes back in trip?), Instant De Reve ran into traffic jams the entire way up the straight last start but only went fair first-up, Muraaqeb comes out of Night’s Watch race where they went the same time as the Memsie Stakes and Luvaluva was solid first-up and won a Group 3 race second-up at this distance last prep. Then there’s Goodfella, Souchez (missed the start before rocketing home last start), Old North and Gamblestown, who probably goes close to winning if he doesn’t lose two lengths last start slotting in. I have a headache, I don’t know about you.
BETTING STRATEGY: I could give MURAAQEB another chance but I can’t talk you out of backing anything here! Is INSTANT DE REVE over the odds?
R4 (2pm): THE SHORTS (1100m)
OVERVIEW: The $1.80 seems a fair bet Redzel. He was pretty dominant first-up and he should stalk the speed and be pretty hard to beat again. I can’t see Invincible Star turning the tables on Redzel and you would think English would be better for the run and should appreciate a touch further (she was fourth in this race last year first-up when caught wide throughout). Brave Smash (second pick for me) was OK first-up and his jumpout win since was very good to the eye. Ball Of Muscle beat Brave Smash first-up but probably won’t get things his own way here with Invincible Star kicking up from gate two. I could be well off the mark here but I could entertain After All That the place at huge odds. He is completely out of his grade but he was beaten less than four lengths in this race last year and I think he is going better now. He is a good fresh horse, Robert Thompson has come down for the ride and Rod Northam knows he needs a good performance from After All That here to gain a slot in The Kosciuszko. He will probably run a nice fifth or sixth but at between $20-$44 the place, I’m happy to speck there.
BETTING STRATEGY: Main bet REDZEL to win at $1.80. Small place play on AFTER ALL THAT.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Ball Of Muscle $12-$9.50
R5 (2.35pm): BILL RITCHIE HCP (1400m)
OVERVIEW: Was Invictus Prince’s second to Winx last start a fluke? That’s the big question here because if it’s not than the $8 is a great bet. Sure, he was beaten five lengths by Kaonic the start before and was just fair first-up (although stuck on inferior ground) but he just might have turned the corner. His trial before and after the Winx Stakes have both been super and he gets in pretty well here despite rising massively in the rating points after the last-start second. His overall time (82.76s) was more than six lengths quicker than Kaonic’s (83.88s) over the same distance on the same day last start and that was all the last 600m (32.94s v 34.12s). He beat D’Argento at weight-for-age and that horse would be favourite or second favourite here. Pierata is a class horse but he hasn’t had the ideal lead up. He missed a run and now comes here six weeks between runs up in trip from a wide gate. He also has to give Invictus Prince weight. Paret is going well but he hasn’t been breaking the clock sectionally, while Sir Plush should be aggressive early and is a place chance at odds. Please note, a few of these are dual nommed for the Cameron at Newcastle on Friday.
BETTING STRATEGY: INVICTUS PRINCE to win.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Pierata $3-$3.10 ($750 @ $3.10), Siege Of Quebec $4.80-$5.50
R6 (3.10pm): COLGATE OPTIC WHITE STAKES (1600m)
OVERVIEW: The mighty mare Winx will bring up Group 1 win No.20 and she is showing no signs of stopping this spring but the market I want to focus on here is the ‘Winx Out’ market. I must admit I’m a bit surprised to see Le Romain as the favourite in this market. Sure, he won well first-up but he got the breaks and was on the best part of the track. I know he was wide in the Tramway but they went slow and I still expected a bit more. I think the $2.90 is acceptable about Unforgotten in this market. She was so push button in the Chelmsford and she dashed clear to win very well after being held up. Some may say she will be looking for longer now but she is being targeted at an Epsom instead of a Caulfield Cup which says to me she is still nice and sharp. Egg Tart should have won first-up but she can do that fresh and then her second-up runs as a rule can be a little bit flat sometimes. If she isn’t flat, she is going to be right there. Ace High was very tough in the Chelmsford when trapped wide and should run well again here.
BETTING STRATEGY: UNFORGOTTEN $2.90 in ‘Winx Out’ market. Could save on EGG TART at $4.20 in the same market.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Winx $1.10 unchanged ($2,000 @ $1.10, $800 @ $1.10, $500 @ $1.10)
R7 (3.50pm): TEA ROSE STAKES (1400m)
OVERVIEW: Very competitive edition of the Tea Rose. The $6.50 seems fair enough about El Dorado Dreaming and I like the way she has been trialling. The 1400m fresh should be OK and she won the Sires’ at this track and distance at huge odds during the autumn (she had to give them a big start that day, too). She looks to have progressed this time in. I’m not sure how strong the race Sangita comes through is but she should have probably won and she beat El Dorado Dreaming fair and square last prep. She is bred to get the trip too and she has to be the value here. Pretty In Pink proved she is up to this class with her run in the Furious and she can only improve off that. The step up in distance should suit on breeding and she just needs things to go her way from out wide. Madam Rouge and Maid Of Heaven bring different form lines to the table and I’ve always had plenty of time for both of them. Madam Rouge was three-wide without cover first-up and still won, while Maid Of Heaven has had a setback since her impressive last-start win but has trialled OK since and gets the blinkers on here. Fiesta, Oohood and Outback Barbie are all capable but I’m just looking for different form here as there hasn’t been a lot between that trio this prep.
BETTING STRATEGY: EL DORADO DREAMING to win + something each-way SANGITA at $18. I could also speck Maid Of Heaven at $51 in the Flight Stakes in the hope she runs well here.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Oohood $7 unchanged ($500 e/w @ $7/$2.50, $500 @ $7), Santa Catarina $15-$13 ($1,000 x $2,000 e/w @ $15/$4.20)
R8 (4.30pm): KINGSTON TOWN STAKES (2000m)
OVERVIEW: Avilius looks a serious horse and he overcame a slow tempo and a traffic jam early in the straight to score last time out. He has clocked some of the best late splits of the entire day at both of his runs in Australia to date and there should be a more genuine tempo here which should only suit him even more. He has a sharp turn of speed and should finish over the top of these again. The $2.40 is about right considering the big field. I don’t think this is the run because he has missed a few starts due to being an emergency but I think Patrick Erin is flying. He was outstanding first-up over 1400m on inferior ground at Rosehill and he can run well here and then measure up in some better races over the spring. Libran is flying but gives them a big start, while I Am Serious tested Avilius last start (and gets a 3kg swing in the weights on that horse here compared to last start) although she had on-pace favours and I doubt that eventuates here (they should go a fair bit quicker).
BETTING STRATEGY: AVILIUS to win. He looks good! Expect a good run from Patrick Erin but it might be one run short.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Big Duke $51-$41, Sedanzer $4-$4.20, I Am Serious $11-$9.50
R9 (5.10pm): E GROUP SECURITY HCP (1200m)
OVERVIEW: Gee it’s hard to go past Trekking in the last. I think the $3.70 is a decent price and he knocked off subsequent winner Tactical Advantage first-up and then beat all bar Don’t Give A Damn last start and he gapped the rest. He should get a nice run here and he just has the strongest form lines. Eawase is a promising filly who overcame a slow tempo to win a stakes race in Queensland during the winter. She will get back here but watch for her late. I had a massive rap on Right Or Wrong in Queensland before he suffered an injury that kept him on the sidelines for 2½ years. His first-up run was a cracker but he missed the start and will he do that again? The other query is second-up off a long break but he has plenty of talent. Single Bullet has trialled well since being caught on the wrong part of the track fresh but that Za Zi Ba form hasn’t exactly stacked up and the figures were soft.
BETTING STRATEGY: TREKKING to win at $3.70 looks a nice way to finish the day.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Marsupial $4.60-$5, Single Bullet $11-$8.50 ($200 @ $11, $350 @ $9.50, $250 @ $8.50)
Racing writers Matt Jones and Shayne O’Cass discuss the big races this weekend.
MJ: I’m thinking this could be the last time we see the champion Winx race in Sydney. Please tell me I’m wrong?
SO: Seems so. I reckon if I owned her, I’d be thinking about another Queen Elizabeth then the 2019 Everest first-up and off to stud!
MJ: I’ve grown tired of listening to people say why she can be beaten. As long as she shows 60 per cent of her true form she wins again. I think Unforgotten can run second to her. She’s an emerging star. I’m always intrigued to hear your best bet of the day, so do tell.
SO: It’s $23 with the TAB. It’s first-up out of a smashing run in the Queensland Derby. It has trialled really well. It’s in race three and it’s called Rezealiant. Here’s a little omen, the horse celebrates his birthday on Saturday!
MJ: I said last start was the last chance for Souchez but after he missed the kick badly and stormed home for fourth, I’ll give him another chance in that race. My best for the day is Festiva in the Tea Rose. She’s so tough and the race should map well for her.
SO: Speaking of the Tea Rose, I like Fiesta’s stablemate Madam Rouge who was fantastic winning with a wide run at the midweeks first-up. Big step up but J-Mac sticks. Most of these fillies are dying for 1400m. Pretty In Pink high among them. It should be a great race.
Winx on track for another win1:26
Racing: Jockey Hugh Bowman remains confident ahead of Saturday's George Main Stakes that Winx will secure her 27th win in a row.
September 13th 2018
2 days ago
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MJ: I think Redzel just wins again. This is a much tougher race than last start but he’s got the runs on the board and is going just about as well as his Everest-winning days a year ago. Can he be upset?
SO: I am his biggest fan but it’s not like he is Winx/unbeatable. I can see Ball Of Muscle upsetting some of these Everest types. You know he deserves it having been runner-up in this race for the past three years. He did beat Brave Smash, too, last start, so he’s in great nick.
MJ: I’ve got to go with Pierata in the Bill Ritchie. He’s the class horse but what about Invictus Prince’s run behind Winx last start? Paret is the new kid on the block and I expect him storming home. What’s your take on it?
SO: Winx form is supreme so I have to be with Invictus Prince. Pierata was great in the Missile beating Kementari but I just wonder how that outside barrier might play against him. The Kingston Town will shed a lot of light on the Metropolitan, I am super keen on Patrick Erin, one of Chris Wallers. I think you like one of his here?
MJ: Love Libran, but for later on. I’ll stick with Avilius to just get the better of him.